At a Glance
- Polymarket faces new bans in Hungary and Portugal amid European regulatory push.
- Hungary blocks access; Portugal orders shutdown pending license.
- These actions follow a week after Ukraine’s ban and add to a growing list of countries restricting the platform.
Why it matters: The restrictions highlight tightening scrutiny over crypto-based prediction markets and could impact the $701.7 million trading volume seen in early January.
Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market that lets users trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes, has just been hit with new regulatory actions in Hungary and Portugal. The moves come after a week of bans in Ukraine and other European jurisdictions, signaling a broader crackdown on unlicensed gambling platforms.
European Regulators Tighten the Net
Polymarket’s business model-allowing market participants to set prices rather than a bookmaker-has attracted attention from regulators who see it as a form of gambling. Over the past month, the platform has been restricted in at least 33 countries, including France, Belgium, Poland, Singapore, and Switzerland. The latest bans in Hungary and Portugal add to this list.
Hungary’s Immediate Block
Hungary’s regulatory authority, Szabályozott Tevékenységek Felügyeleti Hatósága, temporarily blocked Polymarket’s domain and subdomains on Friday, Jan. 13. The authority cited the “forbidden organization of gambling activities” and said the restriction would remain until a review is completed. Users with Hungarian IP addresses now see a warning message from the regulator.
Portugal’s License Crackdown
In Portugal, the Gaming Regulation and Inspection Service (SRIJ) ordered Polymarket to wind down activity in the country. The platform remained accessible on Monday, but enforcement was still in progress. The regulator stated that Polymarket’s activity was illegal because the platform lacked the required license and operates in a country where political betting is banned nationwide. A report identified about 4 million euros ($4.6 million) in wagers placed on Portuguese presidential races in the hours before the election results were announced, raising concerns about potential insider trading.
Wider European Context
| Country | Date of Action | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | Jan. 13 | Blocked | Classified as unlicensed gambling |
| France | Nov. 2024 | Planned block | Failure to comply with national gambling laws |
| Switzerland | Nov. 2024 | Access restrictions | Classified as unlicensed gambling |
| Poland | Jan. 8, 2025 | Added to registry | Prohibited gambling website |
| Singapore | Jan. 2025 | Blocked | Part of broader crackdown |
| Belgium | Jan. 30, 2025 | Blocked | Violations of gambling legislation |
| Hungary | Jan. 13 | Blocked | Temporary domain block |
| Portugal | Jan. 13 | Ordered shutdown | License missing |
Polymarket’s website lists it as geoblocked in 33 countries, reflecting the cumulative effect of these regulatory actions.
Market Impact and Insider Trading Concerns
The platform’s trading volume reached a record $701.7 million on Jan. 12, with competitor Kalshi accounting for about two-thirds of that volume. Despite the mounting pressure, Polymarket has not yet responded to requests for comment.
Insider trading allegations have fueled regulatory scrutiny. On Jan. 3, a Polymarket account placed a bet on a contract predicting that Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office just hours before U.S. forces captured him in a military operation. The bet netted the user about $400,000 in profit. U.S. lawmakers have since proposed legislation aimed at restricting political prediction market trading by government officials.
Future Outlook
The bans in Hungary and Portugal add to a growing pattern of regulatory action across Europe. As more jurisdictions classify Polymarket as unlicensed gambling, the platform’s ability to operate freely is likely to shrink. The record trading volume seen earlier in the month may be a temporary spike, but sustained growth will depend on the platform’s ability to secure licenses and comply with local gambling laws.
Polymarket’s future will hinge on its response to these regulatory challenges and its willingness to adapt its business model to meet the strict requirements of European gambling regulators.
